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How Close Was Operation Valkyrie to Killing Hitler and Changing History?

On July 20, 1944, a group of disillusioned German army officers attempted to assassinate Adolf Hitler and overthrow the Nazi regime in a daring plot known as Operation Valkyrie. Led by the charismatic Colonel Claus von Stauffenberg, the conspirators aimed to seize control of the government, make peace with the Allies, and put an end to the devastating war ravaging Europe.

While Valkyrie ultimately failed to achieve its audacious objective, historians have long debated just how close the plan came to radically altering the course of World War II. A closer examination of the events of that fateful day, supported by eyewitness testimonies and historical research, reveals that Stauffenberg and his co-conspirators may have been tantalizingly close to pulling off one of the most impactful political coups in modern history.

The Making of a Rebel

Few would have predicted that Claus von Stauffenberg, a decorated war hero and scion of German aristocracy, would emerge as the face of the most serious attempt to depose Hitler and end Nazi rule. Born into a distinguished military family in 1907, Stauffenberg initially embraced Hitler‘s rise to power, seeing in him a strong leader capable of restoring Germany‘s wounded pride after World War I.

However, as the Third Reich‘s crimes against humanity mounted and the war turned against Germany on the Eastern Front, Stauffenberg grew increasingly disillusioned. Disgusted by Nazi atrocities and fearing a catastrophic defeat would leave Germany destroyed and divided between the Allies, Stauffenberg resolved to act. As early as 1942, he began quietly searching for like-minded officers within the Wehrmacht who shared his conviction that Hitler must be removed for Germany to survive.

After suffering devastating wounds in Tunisia that cost him an eye, a hand, and two fingers, Stauffenberg was appointed chief of staff to General Friedrich Fromm, commander of the Replacement Army, in 1943. This posting granted him access to Hitler‘s inner sanctum and a platform to recruit fellow dissenters. By 1944, Stauffenberg had emerged as the unquestioned leader of a growing circle of conspirators, including top officials like Ludwig Beck, Carl Goerdeler, and Henning von Tresckow, who were ready to risk everything to topple Hitler before Germany itself was toppled.

Valkyrie: The Plan to Seize Germany

The July 20 plot, known to its intimates as Operation Valkyrie, was arguably the most meticulously planned assassination attempt against Hitler (and there were at least 42 known plots in total). Stauffenberg and his allies spent months secretly rewriting the Valkyrie contingency plan – originally designed to suppress a possible uprising of forced laborers – into a blueprint for overthrowing the Nazi regime itself.

The audacious plan hinged on Stauffenberg using his position to get close enough to Hitler to kill him with a bomb hidden in a briefcase. In the ensuing chaos, the conspirators would swiftly seize key government buildings, arrest SS and Gestapo leaders, and shut down communications to create the impression of an official putsch. They would then install a provisional government led by Beck and Goerdeler to make peace with the Allies and restore democratic rule.

Stauffenberg, as the only conspirator with direct access to the Führer‘s inner circle, was the linchpin of the entire operation. On July 20, he arrived at Hitler‘s heavily-guarded "Wolf‘s Lair" field headquarters in East Prussia to attend a military strategy meeting, concealing two blocks of plastic explosives in his briefcase. The fate of the conspiracy – and arguably the world – would soon rest on this briefcase and the precision of Stauffenberg‘s timing.

The Bomb Plot Unfolds

At 12:37 PM on a sweltering Thursday, Stauffenberg entered the Wolf‘s Lair conference room carrying his explosive briefcase. Unexpectedly, he found the room bustling with over 20 officers rather than the usual intimate gathering. Nevertheless, determined to seize his moment, Stauffenberg placed the briefcase as close to Hitler as possible while trying not to arose suspicion.

After making an excuse about receiving an urgent phone call, Stauffenberg hastily left the room at 12:44 PM, leaving the bomb ticking down under the conference table. He planned to be far away when it detonated, giving him time to fly back to Berlin and coordinate the coup. Unbeknownst to Stauffenberg, a series of subtle shifts in the room after his exit would prove pivotal.

Shortly after Stauffenberg‘s departure, Colonel Heinz Brandt, standing to Hitler‘s left, took a step back and accidentally nudged the briefcase further behind a sturdy wooden table leg. At the same time, Hitler and his entourage unexpectedly decided to continue their meeting while standing, studying maps unfurled on the table. These two innocent movements placed a thick oak slab between Hitler and the bomb – a barrier that would soon stand between him and eternity.

At precisely 12:42 PM, a thunderous blast ripped through the conference room, sending bodies flying, collapsing the ceiling, and leaving a smoldering crater in the floor. Four officers lay dead – including Colonel Brandt – and everyone else was wounded, some gravely. Amid the smoke and debris, a shaken Hitler staggered to his feet, his uniform singed and tattered, suffering ruptured eardrums and minor cuts and burns.

Miraculously, the Führer had survived Germany‘s most promising chance to be rid of him. The table leg and last-minute decision to remain standing had unwittingly shielded him from the shaped charge meant to tear through his torso. According to the US Army‘s WWII history, Hitler later told Mussolini he survived only because "Providence wished me to live so that I could pursue my life‘s mission to its final objective."

Three Fatal Twists of Fate

While some saw divine intervention in Hitler‘s dramatic escape, historians point to three key factors that, together, made the difference between death and a dictator‘s deliverance that day:

  1. The moved briefcase: Colonel Brandt‘s accidental nudging of Stauffenberg‘s briefcase behind the solid wooden table leg created a natural blast shield that absorbed much of the explosion inches from Hitler. Shrapnel and debris was largely deflected away from Hitler‘s legs under the table. If the briefcase had remained even a foot or two closer, almost certainly nothing could have saved him.

  2. The insufficiently armed bomb: Stauffenberg had intended to pack his briefcase with two bombs to guarantee its lethality, but due to an unanticipated time crunch before the meeting, he was only able to arm one of the explosive packs. This last-minute hurdle effectively halved the bomb‘s destructive force. Explosive experts estimate that the full two-bomb charge would have killed everyone at the conference table.

  3. The meeting relocation: The July 20 meeting had originally been planned for Hitler‘s reinforced concrete bunker, but was switched at the last minute to a flimsily converted barrack with timber walls and large windows. While this spared the plotters the challenge of smuggling a bomb into a heavily secured bunker, it also allowed the blast pressure to rapidly dissipate rather than magnifying its force in an enclosed space. Calculations show the same blast in the bunker would have been exponentially deadlier.

If not for any one of these fateful factors, let alone all three, it is hard to imagine Hitler escaping with his life. According to the Führer‘s later survival expert Professor Helmut Mages, just 2 to 3 meters made the difference between Hitler‘s continued existence and Germany‘s hopes to salvage its future.

The Unraveling and Aftermath

Despite Stauffenberg‘s utter conviction as he flew back to Berlin that "the Führer is dead!", the blast-addled Hitler was already phoning subordinates within 30 minutes to assure them otherwise. When initial reports of Hitler‘s death turned out to be greatly exaggerated, the resolve of key plotters in Berlin like Friedrich Fromm and Friedrich Olbricht began to waver.

Faced with a furious Hitler vowing merciless retribution, the meticulously-planned coup swiftly unraveled. By midnight, Stauffenberg and his inner circle of conspirators had been arrested and subjected to a summary court martial. All were found guilty of high treason. By early the next morning on July 21, Stauffenberg and three others were executed by firing squad in the courtyard of the War Ministry, their blood mingling on the ground.

Over the coming weeks, a massive purge ensnared over 7,000 suspected accomplices and sympathizers, with up to 200 executions carried out as Hitler exacted his revenge. Participants were viciously strangled to death with piano wire or hung from meat hooks to prolong their agony. The Gestapo reign of terror wiped out virtually all remaining opposition to Hitler within Germany.

While the failure of Valkyrie dealt a devastating blow to the German resistance, Hitler emerged from the rubble even more convinced of his own invincibility and self-described "providential mission." Far from offering peace, he vowed to press the war effort until Germany was either victorious or reduced to ashes.

Alternate History: What If Valkyrie Had Succeeded?

One of the haunting questions surrounding Operation Valkyrie is how history would have unfolded differently if Stauffenberg‘s bomb had found its mark. While we can never know for sure, most historians agree that by July 1944, an assassinated Hitler would have been unlikely to radically change the war‘s ultimate outcome.

The Allies had already landed in Normandy and were advancing steadily towards Germany from the west, while the Soviet Red Army pushed the Germans back relentlessly in the east after major victories at Stalingrad and Kursk. German forces were stretched desperately thin, demoralized, and running out of crucial resources. Barring a diplomatic miracle, a decisive Allied victory was seemingly inevitable by this point.

However, a sudden shift in leadership and an early German surrender could have potentially hastened the fall of Berlin by several months and spared hundreds of thousands of lives in the final bloody battles of 1945. It‘s also intriguing to consider how post-war Germany might have looked under the provisional anti-Nazi government envisioned by Stauffenberg and his co-conspirators rather than partitioned between the Allies.

Perhaps the most profound impact could have been on the post-war public perception of everyday German complicity in Hitler‘s crimes. The revelations of the July 20 plot would have shattered the persistent myth of the "clean Wehrmacht" and shown that principled, patriotic Germans actively resisted Hitler at great personal risk. This could have opened more nuanced discussions about German culpability and eased some of the shame and tensions that endured for decades after the war.

Valkyrie‘s Legacy and Meaning Today

Regardless of the historical hypotheticals, Operation Valkyrie‘s legacy endures as a powerful testament to the incredible courage and conviction of those Germans who risked everything to topple Hitler‘s genocidal regime from within, even as its demise loomed on the horizon.

At a time when resistance meant certain death, Stauffenberg and his circle of conspirators staged the most promising assassination attempt against Hitler out of more than 40 known plots. They did so not to save themselves or salvage a lost war, but to reclaim Germany‘s honor and humanity in the face of unspeakable evil. In Stauffenberg‘s poignant words before his execution: "Long live our sacred Germany!"

While the July 20 plot would be tragically reduced to a footnote in Hitler‘s death spiral towards self-destruction, its example has only grown more relevant with the passage of time. In an age where authoritarianism is once again on the rise and much of the world slides towards populist extremism, Stauffenberg‘s heroic stand is a timely reminder of the power of individual conscience and conviction in the face of tyranny.

As the world solemnly marks the 80th anniversary of Valkyrie in 2024, we remember and honor the brave men and women who gave their lives in this "fateful endeavor," in the words of Winston Churchill. Though victory eluded their grasp in the end, the legacy of their courage and sacrifice continues to resound through the generations as a call to defend human dignity against all odds. In a world still grappling with Nazism‘s lingering scars, that may be Operation Valkyrie‘s most enduring mission.